Monday, November 29, 2010
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
I want Bobby Jenks back
Something that really bothers me is how much most White Sox fans want Bobby Jenks gone.
When you say that to Sox fans, they assume you can't let go of the past. I agree there is a degree of sentimentality involved, but it's somewhere in the realm of 1 percent.
The other 99 percent is based in logic.
I agree that I don't want the Sox to offer arbitration to Jenks, but that's not a knock at his abilities. I just don't believe any closer...aside from the absolute elite of the elite...deserve an 8 figure salary. But I'm totally in favour of the Sox resigning Jenks after non-tendering him. Doubtful, given the perceived animosity between Jenks and the organization, but it's still worth a mention.
Bobby Jenks, by most modern statistical measures, had one of the best seasons of his career in 2010.
I'm not a stats guy by nature, but I personally believed Jenks pitched well this year. I looked up his peripheral numbers, and they agreed.
His FB velocity was its highest since 2006, his K/9 was its highest since 2005, his K/BB was its highest since 2007, he was getting more ground balls than ever in his career (58.3%, 2.80 GB/FB rate - just awesome). His BABIP shot up 70 points from 2009 to .368, which is probably was his FIP was 2.59, the second lowest of his career.
Everything points to bad luck. Absolutely everything.
Jenks has always been the subject of (in my eyes) unfair skepticism, and this year was no exception. I don't tend to agree with athletes that complain about accountability issues, but I actually agree with Bobby. He's earned the benefit of the doubt, but has seemingly never received it. I can't picture him coming to a post-non-tender-agreement with the Sox (too many ego's), but I do envision him as an absolute steal for some team in 2011.
I'll miss you, Bobby. I think a lot of Sox fans will join me a year from now when they see you pumping your fist to saves with another team.
When you say that to Sox fans, they assume you can't let go of the past. I agree there is a degree of sentimentality involved, but it's somewhere in the realm of 1 percent.
The other 99 percent is based in logic.
I agree that I don't want the Sox to offer arbitration to Jenks, but that's not a knock at his abilities. I just don't believe any closer...aside from the absolute elite of the elite...deserve an 8 figure salary. But I'm totally in favour of the Sox resigning Jenks after non-tendering him. Doubtful, given the perceived animosity between Jenks and the organization, but it's still worth a mention.
Bobby Jenks, by most modern statistical measures, had one of the best seasons of his career in 2010.
I'm not a stats guy by nature, but I personally believed Jenks pitched well this year. I looked up his peripheral numbers, and they agreed.
His FB velocity was its highest since 2006, his K/9 was its highest since 2005, his K/BB was its highest since 2007, he was getting more ground balls than ever in his career (58.3%, 2.80 GB/FB rate - just awesome). His BABIP shot up 70 points from 2009 to .368, which is probably was his FIP was 2.59, the second lowest of his career.
Everything points to bad luck. Absolutely everything.
Jenks has always been the subject of (in my eyes) unfair skepticism, and this year was no exception. I don't tend to agree with athletes that complain about accountability issues, but I actually agree with Bobby. He's earned the benefit of the doubt, but has seemingly never received it. I can't picture him coming to a post-non-tender-agreement with the Sox (too many ego's), but I do envision him as an absolute steal for some team in 2011.
I'll miss you, Bobby. I think a lot of Sox fans will join me a year from now when they see you pumping your fist to saves with another team.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Eduardo Escobar's ceiling
I've felt this way for a while.
When I first read about comparisons between Escobar’s defense and Vizquel’s, the first thing I did was check their MiLB offensive stats.
Now, the notion that Escobar’s "D" compares to Vizquel is something I can’t verify (having never seen him personally), but I doubt it’s quite that good. Not a knock at EE, but Omar is among the all-time best defenders at the game's hardest defensive position.
Still, they are comparable for a few reasons. Beyond simply being Venezuelan, they’re both switch hitters of a modest build. Omar is a tiny bit shorter, EE a tiny bit skinnier. They both had good speed in the minors, and they both failed to translate that speed into steals.
What gives me hope is that Omar’s bat continued to improve into his late 20′s, and into his early 30′s. His baserunning followed suite, while his defense remained elite. If EE can follow the same (or at least similar) path…well that’s just a nice thought. Right now, he projects to me as a Cesar Izturis type...a utility player on a contender. But the potential for greatness is there, and in terms of prospects...that's the most important thing.
EE is already a better hitter than Omar was at the same point in their respective careers. Assuming an Omar-like path of progression is obviously unfair, but it’s always nice to dream.
When I first read about comparisons between Escobar’s defense and Vizquel’s, the first thing I did was check their MiLB offensive stats.
Now, the notion that Escobar’s "D" compares to Vizquel is something I can’t verify (having never seen him personally), but I doubt it’s quite that good. Not a knock at EE, but Omar is among the all-time best defenders at the game's hardest defensive position.
Still, they are comparable for a few reasons. Beyond simply being Venezuelan, they’re both switch hitters of a modest build. Omar is a tiny bit shorter, EE a tiny bit skinnier. They both had good speed in the minors, and they both failed to translate that speed into steals.
What gives me hope is that Omar’s bat continued to improve into his late 20′s, and into his early 30′s. His baserunning followed suite, while his defense remained elite. If EE can follow the same (or at least similar) path…well that’s just a nice thought. Right now, he projects to me as a Cesar Izturis type...a utility player on a contender. But the potential for greatness is there, and in terms of prospects...that's the most important thing.
EE is already a better hitter than Omar was at the same point in their respective careers. Assuming an Omar-like path of progression is obviously unfair, but it’s always nice to dream.
Phil Rogers Hates Tyler Flowers
If you didn't notice, Phil Rogers didn't include Tyler Flowers in his 2010-11 Chicago White Sox Top 10 Prospecs list. Here's the list:
1. Chris Sale, lhp
2. Brent Morel, 3b/ss
3. Dayan Viciedo, 1b/3b
4. Jared Mitchell, of
5. Eduardo Escobar, ss
6. Gregori Infante, rhp
7. Jacob Petricka, rhp
8. Brandon Short, of
9. Trayce Thompson, of
10. Anthony Carter, rhp
The omission of Flowers was the first thing I noticed. I was also a little skeptical of Anthony Carter taking the 10-spot over someone like Addison Reed (and Flowers) among others, although I scoffed at Eduardo Escobar in the 10-spot a couple years ago so who knows.
I really dislike how Baseball America allows guys like Rogers to put these lists together. I’ve been a BA subscriber for years, and in my mind it damages their credibility. Their prospect lists are where they make their money. You think they’d allow their own staff to make the decisions. I’d trust, say Jim Callis, over Phil Rogers anyday.
Considering they say these lists are more indicative of the White Sox’ internal feelings, does this mean AJ gets offered arbitration? I’m actually in favour of this anyways, but it’s still an interesting thought.
I’ve never been a big Flowers fan. Even at this point last year, he screamed “Chris Snyder with a better back and worse defense” to me. Not bad, but not great either. I would still keep him around, though, and and see how Miguel Gonzalez does next year before making any moves.
Anyways, I’m babbling. Bottom line…strange omission. I would have expected Flowers to remain in the top-10 based on his position alone. Makes you wonder…
1. Chris Sale, lhp
2. Brent Morel, 3b/ss
3. Dayan Viciedo, 1b/3b
4. Jared Mitchell, of
5. Eduardo Escobar, ss
6. Gregori Infante, rhp
7. Jacob Petricka, rhp
8. Brandon Short, of
9. Trayce Thompson, of
10. Anthony Carter, rhp
The omission of Flowers was the first thing I noticed. I was also a little skeptical of Anthony Carter taking the 10-spot over someone like Addison Reed (and Flowers) among others, although I scoffed at Eduardo Escobar in the 10-spot a couple years ago so who knows.
I really dislike how Baseball America allows guys like Rogers to put these lists together. I’ve been a BA subscriber for years, and in my mind it damages their credibility. Their prospect lists are where they make their money. You think they’d allow their own staff to make the decisions. I’d trust, say Jim Callis, over Phil Rogers anyday.
Considering they say these lists are more indicative of the White Sox’ internal feelings, does this mean AJ gets offered arbitration? I’m actually in favour of this anyways, but it’s still an interesting thought.
I’ve never been a big Flowers fan. Even at this point last year, he screamed “Chris Snyder with a better back and worse defense” to me. Not bad, but not great either. I would still keep him around, though, and and see how Miguel Gonzalez does next year before making any moves.
Anyways, I’m babbling. Bottom line…strange omission. I would have expected Flowers to remain in the top-10 based on his position alone. Makes you wonder…
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
I'm Back...Offseason Prediction Time...
Well, this thread happens every offseason, and nothing we (or anybody) predict(s) ever seems to happen. But still, it's always fun to speculate and share some opinions.
Ok so here's my thoughts.
Offer arbitration to Konerko (Type A), AJ (Type A), Putz (Type B). Don't offer it to Manny (Type A).
I assume Konerko and Putz will reject. I'm not sure about AJ...he could go either way. If he rejects, I let him go and take the picks. We could surely use them. If he accepts then we have our catcher for 2011. Sure, he'll be overpaid. But he'll also be a reliable and known commodity, lefthanded bat, and on a one-year contract. I figure offering him arbitration is a "can't lose" situation. I think he'd accept because he's coming off a bad year and the economy still isn't the best. He's also a Type-A, and I'm sure he knows that will hurt him on the open market. I'm not an agent, but if he asked my opinion I would tell him to accept, so I'll assume he does. I expect Putz rejects, and I would look to resign him which I think he would be open to.
Of all our arbitration eligible guys, I would non-tender Tony Pena and Jenks. I wouldn't be adverse to resigning Pena, but if he leaves he's easily replaced. Guys with his numbers rarely receive major league contracts on the open market. At least not from contenders. With Jenks, I'd resign him for less, but not as a closer. I doubt he'd resign with us without the guarantee of closing, and so I would let him walk.
Quentin is a guy that is close to being a borderline non-tender, but he simply has to be offered a contract. I would be willing to give him one more season to prove himself, but as DH. However, I'd also look into trading him, but while also avoiding 'selling low'.
As for free agents I would look into, I would try and resign Konerko. I'd go as high as 2Y/22M guaranteed (2Y@10M, 3rd year 11 million with a 2M buyout). I have a hunch he will leave, and in that case I would look to sign Adam Dunn, and I would offer him either 3Y/33M or 4Y/40M. I'm going to guess he goes for the latter, and the deal is structured (in $Millions in order of years) 9,9,10,12.
I would also look to shore up the bullpen. I expect some regression from Santos. He snuck up on people to start the year, but guys will know what to expect this time around and his 1.50ish WHIP will catch up with him, even with some improvement. I want to resign Putz, and I want him to split closing duties with Thornton. I think these guys can handle it. Atlanta had success with Soriano/Gonzalez in similar roles a couple years ago. I think Putz can be worked out for something like 2Y/10M (5 per). I think Gregory Infante can be a 6th/7th inning type. Still, we're going to need another RHR and LHR. There's a bunch of available relievers (which will grow in number after non-tenders) but I would target Joaquin Benoit(1Y/$4M & $5M 2012 option - 500K buyout) and Pedro Feliciano (1Y$2.25M).
I would look to sign some starters coming off injuries on heavily incentive laden contracts. Justin Duchsherer, Kelvim Escobar, Erik Bedard, etc. as insurance. I'd also be open to resigning Freddy if he didn't demand too much. I think Freddy is doubtful, as he's probably earned a guaranteed spot in a rotation somewhere. All we really need is an insurance policy if Peavy isn't ready...and we likely only need them for half a year (Peavy likely back mid-year/Sale likely ready by mid-year...at least one of the two)
In terms of trades, there's some obvious targets. Colby Rasmus is an obvious one, and I would love to get him. He would cost a ton, however, and I'm not sure we're in a position where we can afford to pay the cost. I would look to acquire Matt Kemp from the Dodgers, as he's coming off a dreadful year and reminds me of Alex Rios. His dedication and focus have come into question, but there's no doubting the skills. I'm willing to write 2010 off as a down year and bank on a rebound. Ned Colleti publicly denounced him this year, which might indicate his availability at a below market cost. Also, the Dodgers are losing Hiroki Kuroda to free agency, and will likely be looking for a replacement RHSP. I would try to trade for Kemp with a package built around Gavin Floyd and fillers, and have him play RF.
I would also look to trade for Luke Scott with a package built around Quentin. I think they're not too far off in terms of value (Scott performed better, but is slightly more expensive). Both have poor defense (Quentin probably worse), but Quentin has the higher upside. The fairness lies in the LH/RH needs of each lineup, and the fact that Quentin is younger and cheaper. Also, this trade gives the Sox the balance and reliability a contender looks for, while giving the O's the upside their team needs.
Here's what I see for our team.
LF: Pierre ($5M)
2B: Beckham ($0.45M)
CF: Rios ($12M)
1B/DH: Dunn ($9M)
RF: Kemp (6.95M) - I like Kemp batting 5th..the most common spot in the lineup leading off the 2nd.
DH/1B: Scott (ARB eligible...approx. $6M)
SS: Ramirez ($1.1M)
C: Pierzynski (ARB accepted...approx. $7.25M)
3B: Morel ($0.4M)
3B/RF/2B: Teahen ($4.75M...ugh)
3B/SS/2B: Vizquel ($1.75M)
C: Castro ($1.2M)
CF/2B/SS/3B: Lillibridge ($0.4M)
SP1: Danks (ARB..approx $5.75M - although an extension is possible)
SP2: Peavy ($16M..ugh)
SP3: Buehrle ($14M)
SP4: Jackson ($8.35M)
SP5: Garcia/Escobar/Duchsherer/Bedard+Sale. ----- Some combination of SP1-4 plus two of SP5 plus 2nd half Sale should be enough. (approx. $2.5M combined?)
LR: Infante+SP5 ($0.4M) - Infante was SP majority of career. Insurance SP5 can join pen when not needed in rotation
MR: Santos ($0.4M)
MR: Feliciano ($2.25M)
MR: Linebrink ($5.5M...ugh)
SU: Benoit ($4M)
SU/CL: Thornton ($3M)
SU/CL: Putz ($5)
STARTING LINEUP: approx. $48.15M
BENCH: $8.1M
STARING ROTATION: $46.6M
BULLPEN: $20.55M
TOTAL PAYROLL: $123.4M
If there's a bullpen crisis and we're looking like contenders otherwise, Chris Sale serves as a pretty awesome fallback plan.
Also, my plan suggests an approximately $20 million increase in payroll. This seems drastic, but the payroll was approximately the same as I'm suggesting in 2008. It's asking a lot, but it's not totally irrational.
----
So those are my thoughts. I'm sure I'll change my mind of some on these ideas....but hopefully it's a good starting point.
What do you guys think?
Ok so here's my thoughts.
Offer arbitration to Konerko (Type A), AJ (Type A), Putz (Type B). Don't offer it to Manny (Type A).
I assume Konerko and Putz will reject. I'm not sure about AJ...he could go either way. If he rejects, I let him go and take the picks. We could surely use them. If he accepts then we have our catcher for 2011. Sure, he'll be overpaid. But he'll also be a reliable and known commodity, lefthanded bat, and on a one-year contract. I figure offering him arbitration is a "can't lose" situation. I think he'd accept because he's coming off a bad year and the economy still isn't the best. He's also a Type-A, and I'm sure he knows that will hurt him on the open market. I'm not an agent, but if he asked my opinion I would tell him to accept, so I'll assume he does. I expect Putz rejects, and I would look to resign him which I think he would be open to.
Of all our arbitration eligible guys, I would non-tender Tony Pena and Jenks. I wouldn't be adverse to resigning Pena, but if he leaves he's easily replaced. Guys with his numbers rarely receive major league contracts on the open market. At least not from contenders. With Jenks, I'd resign him for less, but not as a closer. I doubt he'd resign with us without the guarantee of closing, and so I would let him walk.
Quentin is a guy that is close to being a borderline non-tender, but he simply has to be offered a contract. I would be willing to give him one more season to prove himself, but as DH. However, I'd also look into trading him, but while also avoiding 'selling low'.
As for free agents I would look into, I would try and resign Konerko. I'd go as high as 2Y/22M guaranteed (2Y@10M, 3rd year 11 million with a 2M buyout). I have a hunch he will leave, and in that case I would look to sign Adam Dunn, and I would offer him either 3Y/33M or 4Y/40M. I'm going to guess he goes for the latter, and the deal is structured (in $Millions in order of years) 9,9,10,12.
I would also look to shore up the bullpen. I expect some regression from Santos. He snuck up on people to start the year, but guys will know what to expect this time around and his 1.50ish WHIP will catch up with him, even with some improvement. I want to resign Putz, and I want him to split closing duties with Thornton. I think these guys can handle it. Atlanta had success with Soriano/Gonzalez in similar roles a couple years ago. I think Putz can be worked out for something like 2Y/10M (5 per). I think Gregory Infante can be a 6th/7th inning type. Still, we're going to need another RHR and LHR. There's a bunch of available relievers (which will grow in number after non-tenders) but I would target Joaquin Benoit(1Y/$4M & $5M 2012 option - 500K buyout) and Pedro Feliciano (1Y$2.25M).
I would look to sign some starters coming off injuries on heavily incentive laden contracts. Justin Duchsherer, Kelvim Escobar, Erik Bedard, etc. as insurance. I'd also be open to resigning Freddy if he didn't demand too much. I think Freddy is doubtful, as he's probably earned a guaranteed spot in a rotation somewhere. All we really need is an insurance policy if Peavy isn't ready...and we likely only need them for half a year (Peavy likely back mid-year/Sale likely ready by mid-year...at least one of the two)
In terms of trades, there's some obvious targets. Colby Rasmus is an obvious one, and I would love to get him. He would cost a ton, however, and I'm not sure we're in a position where we can afford to pay the cost. I would look to acquire Matt Kemp from the Dodgers, as he's coming off a dreadful year and reminds me of Alex Rios. His dedication and focus have come into question, but there's no doubting the skills. I'm willing to write 2010 off as a down year and bank on a rebound. Ned Colleti publicly denounced him this year, which might indicate his availability at a below market cost. Also, the Dodgers are losing Hiroki Kuroda to free agency, and will likely be looking for a replacement RHSP. I would try to trade for Kemp with a package built around Gavin Floyd and fillers, and have him play RF.
I would also look to trade for Luke Scott with a package built around Quentin. I think they're not too far off in terms of value (Scott performed better, but is slightly more expensive). Both have poor defense (Quentin probably worse), but Quentin has the higher upside. The fairness lies in the LH/RH needs of each lineup, and the fact that Quentin is younger and cheaper. Also, this trade gives the Sox the balance and reliability a contender looks for, while giving the O's the upside their team needs.
Here's what I see for our team.
LF: Pierre ($5M)
2B: Beckham ($0.45M)
CF: Rios ($12M)
1B/DH: Dunn ($9M)
RF: Kemp (6.95M) - I like Kemp batting 5th..the most common spot in the lineup leading off the 2nd.
DH/1B: Scott (ARB eligible...approx. $6M)
SS: Ramirez ($1.1M)
C: Pierzynski (ARB accepted...approx. $7.25M)
3B: Morel ($0.4M)
3B/RF/2B: Teahen ($4.75M...ugh)
3B/SS/2B: Vizquel ($1.75M)
C: Castro ($1.2M)
CF/2B/SS/3B: Lillibridge ($0.4M)
SP1: Danks (ARB..approx $5.75M - although an extension is possible)
SP2: Peavy ($16M..ugh)
SP3: Buehrle ($14M)
SP4: Jackson ($8.35M)
SP5: Garcia/Escobar/Duchsherer/Bedard+Sale. ----- Some combination of SP1-4 plus two of SP5 plus 2nd half Sale should be enough. (approx. $2.5M combined?)
LR: Infante+SP5 ($0.4M) - Infante was SP majority of career. Insurance SP5 can join pen when not needed in rotation
MR: Santos ($0.4M)
MR: Feliciano ($2.25M)
MR: Linebrink ($5.5M...ugh)
SU: Benoit ($4M)
SU/CL: Thornton ($3M)
SU/CL: Putz ($5)
STARTING LINEUP: approx. $48.15M
BENCH: $8.1M
STARING ROTATION: $46.6M
BULLPEN: $20.55M
TOTAL PAYROLL: $123.4M
If there's a bullpen crisis and we're looking like contenders otherwise, Chris Sale serves as a pretty awesome fallback plan.
Also, my plan suggests an approximately $20 million increase in payroll. This seems drastic, but the payroll was approximately the same as I'm suggesting in 2008. It's asking a lot, but it's not totally irrational.
----
So those are my thoughts. I'm sure I'll change my mind of some on these ideas....but hopefully it's a good starting point.
What do you guys think?
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